Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2010, nine can be considered safe for the time being. These seats are:
MD – Mikulski (Likely retirement with Congressman Van Hollen receiving the Dem nomination).
IL – Obama (Should he win the presidency, his appointed successor should be someone who can win with moderates (Congresswoman Bean). Should he not be elected president, Obama would be a safe bet for re-election.
AL – Shelby (Artur Davis may be interested in this race, but two things should come to mind: he represents a gerrymandered district and this is the Deep South).
IN – Bayh is simply popular at home.
ID – Crapo is representing a red state.
OR – Wyden is representing a really blue state.
NY – Schumer can raise money and win voters easily (The only possible sacrificial lamb, willing to go willingly, would be Peter King of Long Island, realizing that the Democrats will be redistricing him into more “immigrant friendly” territory come 2011 – one other Republican will also have the honor of being redistricted, due to New York projected to lose two congressional seats come 2010. The question is not if Democrats will win the State Senate this year, yet more likely how many seats will they actually win).
SC – Demint (I encourage anyone to visit upstate where churches are the size of shopping malls. This explains why Republicans still run the show here).
AK – Murkowski (Should the team of Young and Stevens lose, as expected, she will quickly join the reform side of the Alaskan Republican Party).
Now, the interesting match-ups (in no particular order):
NH – Gregg vs. Lynch (Gregg is too conservative for the state and Lynch is more popular. Since the Old Man of the Mountain collapsed in 2003 the New Hampshire Republican Party has collapsed as well. This is one of three states – Colorado and Virginia being the other – that have gone from solid red to purplish blue). Forecast: Dem Pickup
AR – Lincoln vs. Huckabee (Both are popular, yet Huckabee has a larger profile. Should Huckabee join the McCain team as VP and win, then Lincoln is safe. Should that not occur then this could be one of the more interesting races of 2010). Forecast: Toss Up
CA – Boxer vs. Issa (She’s liberal. He’s overly conservative. California is a split of both, however the populated areas are more liberal, thereby benefiting any Democrat. Schwarzenegger is a failed governor and Dreir would be forced out of the closet, therefore Issa would be the most likely to challenge Boxer. He has money, yet he also has a miserable voting record and may rightfully be considered one of the worst members of Congress). Forecast: Safe Dem
IA – Vilsack vs. King (Grassley may retire for two reasons: being in the minority and being in a party dominated by Southern radicals. Vilsack passed on running for president and King passed on running for Senate against Harkin. King realizes trouble is on the horizon. The state is expected to lose a congressional district in 2010 and all expect that King and Latham will find themselves battling eachother. Rather than battle a fellow Republican, King may decide to continue his anti-immigration battle cry on the statewide level. A certain loss indeed). Forecast: Dem Pickup (if Grassley retires)
OK – Coburn vs. Henry (The fact is that there are more Democrats than Republicans statewide, yet the state is bright red in choosing its presidential candidates. Should Henry challenge Coburn this will be a top tier race with Henry holding a slight advantage). Forecast: Dem Pickup
FL – Martinez vs. Sink (Martinez is in trouble. In fact, crossover non-Cuban Hispanic voters were partially responsible for his narrow victory last time. Democrats realize that success lies in the I-4 corridor (Daytona Beach-Orlando-Tampa area) where voters are more moderate than the conservative north – Jacksonville and Panhandle and the liberal south – Broward and Palm Beach. Alex Sink, the state CFO, and wife of Bill McBride, a former Democratic candidate for governor, fits the perfect profile). Forecast: Dem Pickup
VT – Douglas vs. Welch (Leahy may retire, yet only if Obama is elected. Don’t expect Leahy to retire if McCain wins, he definately would want to be fully involved in fighting to keep a conservative from being appointed to the Supreme Court. Should Leahy retire a match up between Governor Douglas, a Repubocrat in a dark blue state vs. Congressman Welch would be an interesting fight). Forecast: Lean Dem
UT – Bishop vs. Matheson (Bennett will likely retire for reasons similar to Grassley. This is the most conservative state in the nation. However, Matheson has proven he can win in dark red territory and much of the state’s growth is occurring in his district. Yet, this is Utah after all). Forecast: Lean Rep
HI – Lingle vs. Abercrombie (Inouye is likely to retire. Lingle is a popular Republican – yes they do exist in Hawaii, yet in small numbers. Abercrombie has represented most of Oahu in the House. There is no doubt that he wants to move to the Senate and he has waited around patiently, unlike former Congressman Case). Forecast: Toss Up
NC – Burr vs. McIntyre (The best way to describe Burr’s tenure would be an utter failure and polls agree. McIntyre who represents a mainly rural agricultural district and retains a conservative voting record, would be the best challenge to Burr. Should this occur consider Burr endangered). Forecast: Dem Pickup
CO – Salazar vs. Tancredo (Anyone who thinks that “wingnut” Tancredo was retiring is mistaken. Tancredo is looking for higher office: Governor or Senate. His failed presidential bid was intended to raise his profile and his anti-immigration rhetoric, yet it was an utter disaster at best. Sec. of State Coffman is running for Tancredo’s open seat and would be unlikely to change chairs after two years. The only other two Republicans that come to mind would be “wingnuts” Lamborn and Musgrave. Colorado’s entire Republican delegation are “wingnuts” and would be serious underdogs to Salazar). Forecast: Safe Dem
OH – Voinovich vs. Ryan (Can also be considered the future vs. the past, old vs. young, old school vs. new school, etc. Ryan presents a serious challenge to Voinovich. Should the seats of Pryce, Chabot, Schmidt, and Regula fall into Democratic hands, then expect Voinovich to call an early retirement. Maybe Boehner, after a Republican coup d’etat, may want to try his hands at dispatching Ryan – highly unlikely, but a good way into early retirement after a terrible tenure as Republican leader). Forecast: Dem Pickup
WA – Murray vs. Reichert (Reichert is a moderate and can bring in moderate voters along with the conservative eastern part of the state. However, Murray will be in the majority party and be able to deliver an abundance of resources into the state, including into Walla Walla and Wenatchee. Conservative no longer). Forecast: Safe Dem
KY – Chandler vs. Davis (Bunning says he is running for re-election. The GOP will change his mind fairly quickly after the post-election losses of 2008. Chandler is popular and known statewide. He represents a conservative rural district. Davis represents a moderate to conservative suburban district. Rural vs. suburban in Kentucky. Rural wins). Forecast: Dem Pickup
AZ – Napolitano vs. Flake (If McCain wins she gets to choose his Republican successor. The weakest candidate would be Russell Pearce, his xenophobia and radical views would make him an easy defeat. Should McCain not win the presidency, expect him to resign, unlike Kerry. Even if he did not resign, a radical such as Pearce, would most certainly force him into a primary. McCain would not want to face a similar defeat as McGovern – two presidential defeats only to face further embarrasment in having your Senate seat taken. Flake is conservative, but is also one of the more respected members of Congress. While many would give the edge to Napolitano, this is a race that could be competitive once voters become familiar with Flake. Forecast: Lean Dem
CT – Shays vs. Blumenthal (Dodd is likely to retire. Blumenthal has always been considered a gubernatorial candidate, yet passed up every opportunity. Both understand that it is moderate independents and not liberal Democrats that determine statewide victors. Shays represents the cities of Stamford and Norwalk, both of which he, Rell, and Lieberman won. Blumenthal resides in Greenwich, yet him and Shays appear to have a friendly working relationship, therefore making a race against eachother unlikely. Republican contenders in place of Shays would be US Attorney Kevin O’Connor, a Bush appointee and someone who worked closely with Alberto Gonzales, or Lt. Gov. Fedele, a resident of Stamford). Forecast: Likely Dem
ND – Dorgan vs. Hoeven (Hoeven passed up an opportunity to challenge Conrad this year. He is popular statewide and would have been a formible challenge. Should he run against Dorgan this would be a closely watched race). Forecast: Toss Up
LA – Alexander vs. Melancon (Vitter, the candidate of family values, will be presented with three options: voluntary retirement, a challenging primary, or a general election defeat. Neither are a winning strategy, yet if Melancon is the Democratic nominee, the centrist Democrat would have broad appeal throughout the conservative areas of the state. Alexander, the former Democrat, would find it difficult to differentiate himself from the more challenging Melancon). Forecast: Dem Pickup
WI – Feingold vs. Ryan (Feingold is liberal. Ryan is conservative. Ryan is a rising star in the Republican Party, at least what is left of the party. Wisconsin is not necessarily a blue state and many are not as liberal as Feingold. Ryan would be a formible opponent, yet Feingold would be able to exploit his majority status. This is a race that could heat up in the end). Forecast: Likely Dem
GA – Isakson vs. Marshall (Isakson wanted to run for Governor, then saw the polls and decided not to. The same polls show that he is not necessarily a popular Senator. Congressman Marshall represents a Republican district and would be able to win over Republicans elsewhere throughout the state. Isakson could be in trouble, even in peachy Georgia). Forecast: Toss Up
KS – Sebelius vs. Tiahrt (Brownback has already announced that he’s retiring. Sebelius may represent a red state, yet she is extremely popular, and has assisted the Republican Party with its ongoing implosion. Congressman Tiahrt or Moran could challenge Sebelius, yet both would be at a great disadvantage. Forecast: Dem Pickup
SD – Rounds vs. Herseth (Thune may run for Governor. Rounds and Herseth are both popular and would make this an extremely tight race. Should Thune pass up a run for governorship, then expect this seat to remain in Republican hands. Should it be a Rounds vs. Herseth match then a close race would be on the horizon). Forecast: Safe Rep/Toss Up
TX – Dewhurst vs. Lampson (Hutchinson is expected to run for Governor. If Hutchinson resigns early, then expect Lt. Gov. Dewhurst to be appointed to the seat, rather than a drawn out primary costing the Republican ambitions in retaining the governorship. Lampson, a conservative Democrat, would have cross-over appeal. A win in November would be a guarantee that he could win on the state level. Other Democrats with cross-over appeal who have potential would be Congressmen Chet Edwards, Jim Turner, or Martin Frost. All have substantial funds for any future race. Forecast: Likely Rep
PA – Rendell vs. Gerlach (Specter most likely will retire. If he does not retire, then expect it to be a Schwartz vs. Specter race, Rendell will not challenge Specter due to their close relationship. Should Specter retire then expect Rendell to be the top recruit on the Democratic side. Congressman Gerlach or Dent could challenge Rendell, yet both would be at a serious disadvantage. Former Republican strongholds, Montgomery and Bucks Counties, are now majority Democratic. A Montgomery County race, Schwartz vs. Gerlach, would be the most interesting race of all). Forecast: Dem Pickup
MO – Bond vs. Robin Carnahan (Missouri is a middle of the road state, ultra conservative in Springfield and liberal in Saint Louis. Sec. of State Robin Carnahan could put the family name to good use and continue the winning trend – her father was governor, mother was US Senator, and brother is a current congressman. Should she challenge Bond, then expect an extremely close race. Forecast: Toss Up
NV – Reid vs. Porter (Reid may be Majority Leader, yet his popularity at home is weak. However he is more popular than current Governor Gibbons, if that provides any consolation. Congressman Porter is facing a tight re-election this year and he is fully aware that Reid provided assistance in recruiting Titus as a strong challenger. Porter will be seeking revenge, win or lose. With the current ongoing Gibbons scandal expect the state GOP to take a little beating). Forecast: Lean Dem
I agree that Burr is toast. However, I suspect a more likely opponent would be Brad Miller (rumored this year, probably looking for the easier 2010 pickings), Richard Moore (runnerup for Dem Gov this year), Bev Purdue (if she doesn’t win the Gov race), or possibly popular AG Roy Cooper. In fact, given how incredibly vulnerable Burr is, I expect that prominent Dems will be crawling out of the woodwork to run for this one. The bench is very deep in a state dominated by the Dems at all levels except Pres & one Senate seat. No one’s been re-elected to this seat since Sam Ervin in 1968. It’s gone Rep in every Presidential year and Dem in every non-Presidential year since then.
She’s a hard right northern Democrat who boasts about voting against the Democratic line. We don’t need to run her in a state that reliably re-elects Dick Durbin to the Senate. Just about any Democrat in Illinois would be better. What about Rahm? Or, if we really want to go for it Jan Schakowsky?
All of your challengers and open seat backups are congressmen! With the exception of a couple governors. That’s absurd.
Look at our 2008 slate of candidates: (No particular order)
Competitive fights:
1. Maine – Congressman Tom Allen
2. Colorado – Congressman Mark Udall
3. New Mexico – Congressman Tom Udall
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Longshots:
4. Idaho – Former Congressman Larry LaRocco
5. Kansas – Former Congressman Jim Slattery
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Non-congressmen recruits:
1. Virginia – Mark Warner
2. New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen
3. Alaska – Mark Begich
4. Mississippi – Ronnie Musgrove
5. Oregon – Jeff Merkley
6. Minnesota – Al Franken
7. North Carolina – Kay Hagan
8. Kentucky – Bruce Lunsford
9. Oklahoma – Andrew Rice
10. Texas – Rick Noriega
11. Nebraska – Scott Kleeb
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My point is, over 2-1 ratio, we don’t recruit congressmen. In fact, we have a lot of state legislature candidates. Your recruitment for Democrats is too optimistic. In some cases it makes sense.
Tim Ryan has made it known he is interested in a 2010 senate race against Voinovich, and Pro-Life Democrats are very common in Ohio. However, if Herseth-Sandolin is out to boost her national profile, she’d be more likely to run for governor (open seat) than senate (Possibly open seat – doubt it). Why would Tiahrt sacrifice his congressional seat in a suicide race against Sebelius? I don’t see Ryan running against Feingold, he didn’t in 2004, a much more favorable environment than 2010.
Some of your congressmen might not even survive 2008. If they can’t survive 2008, why would they go big and go for senate, a more embarassing loss, in 2010? My point is, a substantial amount of the recruitments are either too optimistic or unrealistic.
We’re going to pick up 10 seats after a (likely) presidential victory and two cycles with nice gains? Don’t parties usually lose seats in the years after a presidential victory?
seriously? why would dems need to pick a moderate in Illinois? This isn’t Mississippi. Bean would be the worst pick possible.
First, Coburn may very well not run again. and two, Henry is not running for U.S. Senate anytime in the next 4-6 years. It is common knowledge here that his wife would divorce him if he did so.
He’s a complete backbencher. For a guy hailed as a future leader of their party back in 2004 he’s accomplished nothing. He just doesn’t seem to like his job at all, and as a Florida voter I can tell you his constituent services are the worst I’ve ever seen. Many here in Florida don’t even know he’s one of our Senators. It wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t even run in 2010.
This one makes very little sense.
I’m from Vermont and I’m tuned into what happens in terms of my home state’s politics on a daily, consistent basis. I can say, with all sincerity, that Sen. Leahy will be running for reelection in 2010, regardless of what happens in this year’s presidential race. He’s already begun to raise funds in anticipation for his campaign and he’s set up a PAC in order to help other candidates get elected to the Senate. Leahy is, without a doubt, Vermont’s best Democrat and I would hate to see him retire so early when he’s achieved so much in the Senate.
If he does decide to call it a career, however, I wouldn’t count on Governor Douglas running for the seat. Douglas ran against Leahy in ’92 and still got stomped by 11 percentage points. Douglas will also be serving what will likely be his final term in office from 2009 to 2011 and will probably retire from public life at that time. I can fully expect Congressman Welch to run for the Senate if Leahy or Sanders do retire in the next decade.
There’s just so much nonsense from this analysis to repudiate, I’m just going to do that on a separate diary. But for now, I’ll ask one simple question:
Can we just focus on 2008 for now, getting at least 57 seats, kick Lieberman’s ass to the curb, and THEN focus on 2010?
Some of the more liberal minded bloggers are a little upset of what I consider to be hot races (not that I said they were likely to happen).
First, let’s get to the truth. Congressman Wexler would never win in Florida on a statewide level. I don’t care what any poll says about Martinez’s popularity. The fact is that the Orlando-Tampa area is too moderate compared to Wexler’s liberl Broward County.
Second, Melissa Bean would be the best candidate to hold onto Obama’s seat. All of the other Congressional Democrats are too liberal and would most certainly face a serious challenge. Anyone who thinks that Bean’s profile would remain moderate-conservative should she be appointed to the Senate is mistaken. She would most likely adopt a moderate-liberal profile. There is such thing as conversion, especially when the politics of your constituency changes dramatically. The ultra-liberal
Third, even if Leahy retired, Governor Douglas would be less likely to run, especially when Republicans are almost an extinct species in the Northeast.
Finally, I am a moderate and am not going to endorse liberals such as Wexler and Emmanuel, who would strain party funds and find themselves with a competitive challenger. Also, Obama’s replacement should be viewed as being appointed by him, rather than an increasingly unpopular failed governor. Therefore, Bean has cross-over appeal, has been a proven fundraiser, and has been able to dispatch competitive challengers (aka: millionares). Attorney General Madigan and Congressman Emmanuel would be viewed as Blagojevich appointees. It would be harder to make such a link with Bean. Sorry ultra-liberals. Bean is the best choice.
Members of Congress who view themselves without a job two years down the road due to redistricting, such as in Iowa (King) or Pennsylvania (Schwarz) may decide to run for the Senate, even if it involves losing. That’s the reason why the match-ups includes lots of members of Congress. Once again, don’t view it as hypothetical, yet rather interesting, races. Races that would be interesting to watch unfold. That’s the whole point.
Anyone who honestly believes that the House is not the beginning to ascension into the Senate, should review the demographics of the existing Senate.
46 went directly from the House to the Senate. 49 actually served in the House previously (Bill Nelson, Carper, and Gregg all went on to statewide office prior to returning to the Senate).
11 came directly as former mayors, city council, or county executive. 17 actually served on the local level previous, yet of these, five went to the House and one went to the governorship.
9 came directly from their respective State Senate.
7 were former State Treasurer or Auditor.
7 came directly from Governorships. 8 were actually Governors (Alexander served in a cabinet position after his governorship).
7 were former State Attorney Generals.
6 came directly from no previous elected office.
3 were former members of Cabinet.
2 came directly from the military branch.
1 came directly from Lt. Governor.
1 was First Lady.
In 2006, there were six members of the House that ran for Senate. This year that number is five. However, in 2004 eleven members of the House ran for a Senate seat. On average, it can be expected that six to seven members of the House would run for a Senate seat in any given election year.
However, in terms of former governors, four (a fairly high number) are running this year. Normally, that number is one or two at most.
The fact remains that members of the House are not only likely to run for a Senate seat, especially an open one, yet they dominate the composition of the Senate overall. Therefore, any possible race match-ups should take this into consideration.
…if gas prices, the housing crash, the collapsing dollar, and everything else really does bring the economy down hard it may take awhile to get a recovery and the real hurt may start and be blamed on Obama. Plus off year elections traditionally aren’t good for parties in power.
That could spell trouble in unexpected places like Washington, Wisconsin, Colorado, Indiana, even California.